Are African women having too many babies?World Bank Chief Economist for Africa Asks. I Answer

 

By Shanta Devarajan, Africa Region Chief Economist for the World Bank

Twenty-five of the 28 high-fertility (more than 5 children per woman) countries are in Africa. This and related facts have revived the concern that Africa will miss out on the “demographic dividend” –the rapid economic growth rates associated with declining fertility, as experienced by many countries in Asia. But Africa is also the continent with the slowest economic growth in the past. And, as The Economist (and others) pointed out, economic growth is probably the best contraceptive. 

The problem may be that African economies are not growing fast enough; if and when they do grow, fertility rates will come down. To be sure, the relationship between declining fertility and economic growth goes both ways, so we can’t be complacent and let economic growth do all the work. Furthermore, we may not get that rapid economic growth.